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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 18 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated after 3Q22 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 16.83
Contributors with rating, # 18
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 83%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  17%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(1), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E
Average EPS, € 2.17 2.09 2.71
Growth y/y n.m.  -4% +30%
Median EPS, € 2.23 2.03 2.70
Growth y/y n.m.  -9% +33%
Max  2.49 2.65 3.44
Min 1.50 1.66 2.21

DPS(2), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E
Average DPS, € 0.84 0.77 0.99
Growth n.m.  -8% +28%
Median DPS, € 0.85 0.80 0.98
Growth n.m.  -7% +23%
Max  0.96 0.94 1.23
Min 0.58 0.62 0.80

(1) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Consolidated Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 2022E   2023E   2024E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 19,649 19,725 19,464 19,348 19,869 19,800
Net interest 10,297 10,385 10,963 10,900 11,152 10,999
Net commissions 6,838 6,851 6,772 6,764 6,930 6,942
Trading income 2,241 2,240 1,423 1,425 1,440 1,464
Dividends 349 339 341 331 376 345
Balance -74 -78 -35 -29 -30 -22
Operating costs -9,625 -9,619 -9,695 -9,695 -9,758 -9,709
Staff expenses -5,891 -5,886 -5,915 -5,901 -5,942 -5,926
Other administrative expenses -3,031 -3,089 -3,056 -3,095 -3,071 -3,091
Recovery of expenses 505 505 501 516 496 517
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,148 -1,150 -1,161 -1,155 -1,174 -1,158
Gross operating profit 10,024 10,101 9,769 9,715 10,111 10,034
Net write-downs on loans -2,248 -2,195 -2,644 -2,608 -2,295 -2,319
Net operating profit 7,776 7,796 7,125 6,982 7,815 7,704
Other charges & provisions -1,186 -1,200 -1,262 -1,272 -1,043 -1,041
 o/w Systemic Charges -1,108 -1,133 -1,109 -1,141 -961 -942
  o/w DGS -343 -339 -358 -339 -358 -332
  o/w Bank levies -153 -138 -149 -138 -143 -138
  o/w SRF -606 -606 -590 -614 -409 -338
Integration costs -35 -37 -9 0 -9 0
Net profit (loss) from investments 20 -6 -28 -3 -24 -3
Profit (loss) before tax 6,575 6,625 5,826 5,695 6,739 6,749
Income taxes -1,643 -1,593 -1,537 -1,521 -1,777 -1,780
 o/w TLCF DTA write-up 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 15 3 -14 0 -12 0
Minorities -28 -23 -30 -30 -31 -35
PPA -3 0 -4 0 -4 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -10 0 -10 0 -10 0
Stated Net profit 4,919 4,927 4,240 4,156 4,913 4,959
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -296 -298 -314 -305 -320 -303
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -109 -113 -141 -121 -145 -128
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 4,558 4,607 3,856 3,815 4,525 4,585
CET1% 14.97% 15.00% 14.63% 14.57% 14.57% 14.58%
RWA, EoP 323,752 323,170 327,352 326,370 329,782 329,673

 

Group excluding Russia

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 2022E   2023E   2024E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 18,531 18,570 18,964 19,038 19,435 19,493
Net interest 9,599 9,683 10,532 10,637 10,783 10,881
Net commissions 6,756 6,768 6,726 6,750 6,896 6,896
Trading income 1,837 1,883 1,403 1,429 1,407 1,440
Dividends 333 320 314 316 357 336
Balance 9 -3 -12 -14 -7 -5
Operating costs -9,349 -9,342 -9,491 -9,477 -9,568 -9,566
Staff expenses -5,752 -5,750 -5,822 -5,788 -5,861 -5,804
Other administrative expenses -3,003 -2,992 -3,052 -3,032 -3,071 -3,045
Recovery of expenses 502 503 499 515 493 515
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,101 -1,100 -1,122 -1,118 -1,132 -1,132
Gross operating profit 9,182 9,251 9,473 9,499 9,867 9,741
Net write-downs on loans -1,126 -1,088 -2,270 -2,383 -2,118 -2,141
Net operating profit 8,056 8,152 7,203 7,125 7,749 7,614
Other charges & provisions -1,150 -1,157 -1,226 -1,228 -1,036 -1,017
 o/w Systemic Charges -1,093 -1,091 -1,095 -1,102 -932 -985
  o/w DGS -319 -311 -332 -311 -332 -311
  o/w Bank levies -155 -140 -156 -140 -145 -140
  o/w SRF -601 -601 -589 -606 -374 -311
Integration costs -20 -24 -5 0 -5 0
Net profit (loss) from investments 106 52 -9 0 -15 0
Profit (loss) before tax 6,988 7,100 5,964 5,896 6,695 6,729
Income taxes -1,843 -1,826 -1,589 -1,604 -1,798 -1,765
 o/w TLCF DTA write-up 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 1 1 0 0 0 0
Minorities -30 -23 -35 -39 -36 -40
PPA 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -13 0 -13 0 -13 0
Stated Net profit 5,104 5,167 4,343 4,256 4,883 4,964
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -297 -298 -314 -307 -317 -314
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -101 -106 -149 -148 -152 -148
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 4,776 4,809 3,971 3,847 4,508 4,564

(3) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

Updated on 16 November 2022.