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Consensus
Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.
Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 18 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.
The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.
By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.
Consensus updated after the 3Q23 results.
Download the document
Target price, rating, EPS, DPS
Target price & rating
Stated EPS (1), €
| 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average EPS, € | 4.28 | 4.69 | 5.12 |
| Growth y/y | n.m. | +10% | +9% |
| Median EPS, € | 4.25 | 4.73 | 5.06 |
| Growth y/y | n.m. | +11% | +7% |
| Max | 4.64 | 5.25 | 5.87 |
| Min | 4.02 | 4.22 | 4.48 |
EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(2), €
| 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average EPS, € | 4.04 | 4.44 | 4.86 |
| Growth y/y | n.m. | +10% | +9% |
| Median EPS, € | 4.00 | 4.51 | 4.83 |
| Growth y/y | n.m. | +13% | +7% |
| Max | 4.42 | 5.01 | 5.60 |
| Min | 3.80 | 3.95 | 4.23 |
DPS(3), €
| 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average DPS, € | 1.52 | 1.71 | 2.07 |
| Growth | n.m. | +12% | +21% |
| Median DPS, € | 1.48 | 1.69 | 2.03 |
| Growth | n.m. | +14% | +20% |
| Max | 1.72 | 1.88 | 3.05 |
| Min | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.66 |
(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.
(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.
(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.
Group
Consensus full table
| Consensus(4) | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | Average | Median | Average | Median | Average | Median |
| Total revenues | 23,435 | 23,469 | 22,697 | 22,645 | 22,558 | 22,380 |
| Net interest | 13,842 | 13,855 | 13,283 | 13,234 | 12,928 | 12,732 |
| Net commissions | 7,458 | 7,440 | 7,619 | 7,605 | 7,848 | 7,778 |
| Trading income | 1,754 | 1,770 | 1,436 | 1,435 | 1,404 | 1,366 |
| Dividends | 437 | 443 | 402 | 413 | 408 | 416 |
| Balance | -56 | -62 | -42 | -54 | -31 | -49 |
| Operating costs | -9,516 | -9,513 | -9,521 | -9,518 | -9,604 | -9,606 |
| Staff expenses | -6,001 | -5,843 | -5,833 | -5,832 | -5,892 | -5,911 |
| Other administrative expenses | -2,971 | -3,043 | -2,969 | -3,036 | -2,984 | -3,057 |
| Recovery of expenses | 538 | 521 | 540 | 524 | 538 | 527 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | -1,148 | -1,150 | -1,162 | -1,157 | -1,169 | -1,170 |
| Gross operating profit | 13,919 | 13,948 | 13,176 | 13,097 | 12,954 | 12,778 |
| Net write-downs on loans | -923 | -940 | -1,302 | -1,238 | -1,419 | -1,414 |
| Net operating profit | 12,997 | 12,956 | 11,874 | 11,923 | 11,535 | 11,563 |
| Other charges & provisions | -1,264 | -1,260 | -933 | -910 | -815 | -829 |
| o/w Systemic Charges | -986 | -974 | -701 | -701 | -598 | -564 |
| o/w DGS | -294 | -292 | -286 | -292 | -210 | -204 |
| o/w Bank levies | -216 | -227 | -215 | -229 | -161 | -173 |
| o/w SRF | -484 | -465 | -188 | -161 | -102 | -106 |
| Integration costs | -893 | -855 | -187 | -192 | -91 | -92 |
| Net profit (loss) from investments | -162 | -137 | -26 | -6 | -16 | -6 |
| Profit (loss) before tax | 10,652 | 10,679 | 10,724 | 10,876 | 10,618 | 10,618 |
| Income taxes | -2,761 | -2,792 | -2,893 | -2,861 | -2,884 | -2,818 |
| Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minorities | -26 | -25 | -26 | -25 | -27 | -26 |
| PPA | -3 | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Goodwill impairment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stated Net profit | 7,882 | 7,799 | 7,804 | 7,839 | 7,707 | 7,634 |
| AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) | -265 | -266 | -256 | -254 | -256 | -254 |
| Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) | -133 | -125 | -143 | -131 | -143 | -131 |
| Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes | 7,448 | 7,355 | 7,387 | 7,430 | 7,316 | 7,267 |
| RWA, EoP | 290,780 | 290,862 | 296,470 | 297,511 | 308,980 | 308,728 |
| CET1% | 16.55% | 16.53% | 16.59% | 16.52% | 16.03% | 15.97% |
(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.
"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.
"Net profit after AT1/Cashes" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test and adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution, as well as RoTE and RoAC calculation.