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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 20 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated post of 2Q22 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 14.62
Contributors with rating, # 17
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 82%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  18%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(1), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 1.49 1.86 2.45 3.26
Growth y/y n.m. +25%  +32%  +33%
Median EPS, € 1.52 1.78 2.52 3.31
Growth y/y n.m. +17% +42% +31%
Max  1.77 2.24 2.90 3.72
Min 1.10 1.46 1.96 2.73

DPS(2), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Average DPS, € 0.64 0.71 0.93 1.50
Growth n.m. +11%  +31%  +61%
Median DPS, € 0.66 0.70 0.94 1.12
Growth n.m. +6% +35% +18%
Max  0.80 0.91 1.19 2.79
Min 0.41 0.53 0.71 1.00

(1) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Consolidated Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 2022E   2023E   2024E   2025E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 18,548 18,622 18,605 18,718 18,852 19,005 19,473 19,609
Net interest 9,632 9,723 9,997 10,059 10,087 10,184 10,384 10,514
Net commissions 6,796 6,811 6,827 6,853 6,998 6,997 7,254 7,272
Trading income 1,835 1,843 1,430 1,442 1,410 1,425 1,447 1,450
Dividends 377 365 391 365 395 375 430 408
Balance -98 -95 -42 -35 -39 -31 -38 -32
Operating costs -9,671 -9,676 -9,635 -9,667 -9,593 -9,609 -9,706 -9,760
Staff expenses -5,904 -5,895 -5,847 -5,844 -5,801 -5,809 -5,864 -5,835
Other administrative expenses -3,089 -3,093 -3,092 -3,102 -3,084 -3,062 -3,314 -3,176
Recovery of expenses 465 527 454 530 454 528 526 539
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,156 -1,152 -1,170 -1,163 -1,186 -1,185 -1,187 -1,195
Gross operating profit 8,877 8,906 8,970 9,051 9,259 9,390 9,767 9,849
Net write-downs on loans -2,811 -2,888 -2,428 -2,408 -2,194 -2,141 -2,232 -2,017
Net operating profit 6,066 6,122 6,542 6,648 7,065 7,146 7,535 7,259
Other charges & provisions -1,226 -1,237 -1,267 -1,291 -1,033 -1,035 -1,040 -1,189
 o/w Systemic Charges -1,096 -1,071 -1,072 -1,075 -897 -857 -811 -988
  o/w DGS -335 -330 -331 -330 -334 -330 -330 -330
  o/w Bank levies -146 -138 -150 -138 -142 -138 -125 -125
  o/w SRF -636 -607 -598 -607 -363 -310 -580 -580
Integration costs -19 -9 -16 0 -16 0 -35 0
Net profit (loss) from investments -79 -61 -28 0 -20 0 -41 0
Profit (loss) before tax 4,748 4,727 5,235 5,278 5,999 6,019 6,418 6,428
Income taxes -1,259 -1,255 -1,348 -1,378 -1,544 -1,526 -1,601 -1,636
 o/w TLCF DTA write-up 133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 1 0 -14 0 -13 0 0 0
Minorities -35 -35 -35 -38 -36 -40 -39 -42
PPA -4 0 -4 0 -4 0 0 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -7 0 -7 0 -7 0 -25 -25
Stated Net profit 3,451 3,496 3,838 3,797 4,405 4,477 4,776 4,571
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -305 -296 -305 -295 -305 -295 -308 -294
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -97 -105 -121 -128 -125 -128 -124 -124
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 3,178 3,183 3,559 3,573 4,124 4,131 4,944 4,670
RWA, EoP 326,894 325,984 324,147 324,550 326,029 323,064 331,813 326,271
CET1% 14.44% 14.30% 14.37% 14.45% 14.27% 14.37% 14.72% 14.52%

 

Group excluding Russia

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 2022E   2023E   2024E   2025E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 17,883 17,793 18,289 18,242 18,544 18,516 18,518 18,761
Net interest 9,155 9,162 9,712 9,650 9,839 9,750 9,779 9,846
Net commissions 6,762 6,764 6,816 6,852 6,978 7,020 7,052 7,097
Trading income 1,631 1,650 1,426 1,400 1,380 1,414 1,308 1,395
Dividends 363 349 367 360 372 370 327 336
Balance -28 -22 -35 -27 -27 -15 -4 0
Operating costs -9,454 -9,452 -9,500 -9,434 -9,476 -9,367 -9,462 -9,486
Staff expenses -5,782 -5,769 -5,771 -5,751 -5,742 -5,750 -4,907 -5,757
Other administrative expenses -3,017 -3,017 -3,042 -3,038 -3,038 -3,026 -2,592 -3,068
Recovery of expenses 463 525 458 527 458 521 372 478
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,119 -1,114 -1,145 -1,154 -1,155 -1,145 -984 -1,140
Gross operating profit 8,429 8,358 8,789 8,831 9,068 9,090 9,056 9,132
Net write-downs on loans -1,574 -1,385 -2,181 -2,166 -2,044 -2,002 -1,890 -1,892
Net operating profit 6,855 6,886 6,608 6,646 7,024 7,059 7,166 7,124
Other charges & provisions -1,185 -1,200 -1,246 -1,253 -1,010 -1,000 -995 -1,000
 o/w Systemic Charges -1,077 -1,070 -1,058 -1,063 -835 -803 -897 -959
  o/w DGS -311 -312 -309 -310 -311 -312 -301 -301
  o/w Bank levies -150 -153 -154 -153 -140 -142 -118 -118
  o/w SRF -626 -601 -596 -603 -330 -292 -365 -365
Integration costs -5 -1 -4 0 -4 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) from investments 18 0 -14 0 -12 0 -29 0
Profit (loss) before tax 5,697 5,760 5,357 5,395 5,999 6,035 6,142 6,012
Income taxes -1,544 -1,510 -1,431 -1,460 -1,621 -1,620 -1,526 -1,623
 o/w TLCF DTA write-up 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations -39 0 5 0 13 0 32 0
Minorities -37 -42 -37 -38 -37 -42 -35 -29
PPA 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -8 0 -8 0 -8 0 -25 -25
Stated Net profit 4,095 4,114 3,894 3,839 4,357 4,308 4,582 4,561
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -308 -300 -312 -296 -309 -296 -314 -288
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -89 -84 -122 -126 -127 -126 -129 -128
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 3,763 3,694 3,534 3,547 3,996 4,024 4,256 4,207

(3) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

Updated on 05 September 2022.