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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 18 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated after 1Q24 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 43.42
Contributors with rating, # 17
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 88%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  12%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

Stated EPS (1), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average EPS, € 5.51 5.76 6.31
Growth y/y n.m. +4% +10%
Median EPS, € 5.48 5.72 6.24
Growth y/y n.m. +4% +9%
Max  5.86 6.36 7.15
Min 5.16 5.14 5.52

EPS(2), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average EPS, € 5.43 5.70 6.21
Growth y/y n.m. +5% +9%
Median EPS, € 5.40 5.71 6.14
Growth y/y n.m. +6% +7%
Max  5.74 6.32 7.07
Min 5.16 5.14 5.52

DPS(3), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average DPS, € 2.26 2.55 3.00
Growth n.m. +13% +18%
Median DPS, € 2.27 2.58 3.06
Growth n.m. +14% +19%
Max  2.46 3.02 3.79
Min 2.00 2.11 2.29

(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

 

Consensus(4) 2024E   2025E   2026E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 23,562 23,537 23,110 23,106 23,305 23,382
Net interest 13,648 13,644 12,929 12,908 12,779 12,756
Net commissions 7,873 7,866 8,192 8,196 8,541 8,566
Trading income 1,603 1,650 1,521 1,578 1,485 1,494
Dividends 427 452 437 458 439 430
Balance 10 14 31 32 60 35
Operating costs -9,450 -9,435 -9,537 -9,528 -9,672 -9,663
Staff expenses -5,854 -5,818 -5,898 -5,897 -6,002 -5,957
Other administrative expenses -2,968 -3,065 -2,992 -3,082 -3,027 -3,096
Recovery of expenses 516 546 508 545 519 551
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,077 -1,091 -1,083 -1,108 -1,080 -1,114
Gross operating profit 14,112 14,109 13,573 13,525 13,633 13,672
Net write-downs on loans -830 -854 -1,124 -1,090 -1,226 -1,139
Net operating profit 13,282 13,304 12,449 12,506 12,407 12,584
Other charges & provisions -725 -675 -574 -568 -574 -594
 o/w Systemic Charges -524 -501 -397 -413 -384 -395
  o/w DGS -269 -270 -191 -201 -193 -208
  o/w Bank levies -222 -227 -209 -195 -207 -185
  o/w SRF -53 -50 -64 -75 -57 -60
Integration costs -179 -118 -96 -82 -90 -71
Net profit (loss) from investments -41 -14 -42 -16 -43 -11
Profit (loss) before tax 12,350 12,255 11,745 11,803 11,705 11,670
Income taxes -3,306 -3,404 -3,199 -3,255 -3,189 -3,272
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -30 -29 -30 -30 -30 -30
PPA -1 0 -2 0 -2 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stated Net profit 9,013 9,010 8,515 8,506 8,484 8,490
Net Profit 8,889 8,839 8,458 8,462 8,396 8,443
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -295 -266 -298 -281 -294 -266
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -183 -175 -179 -173 -178 -173
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 8,470 8,464 8,028 8,012 7,934 8,022
             
RWA, EoP 282,266 281,249 297,465 298,779 302,019 301,771
CET1% 15.92% 15.98% 15.05% 15.29% 14.76% 15.04%

(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.
"Net profit" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution.
"Net profit after AT1/Cashes" means Net profit as defined above adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for RoTE and RoAC calculation.

 

Updated on 30 May 2024.