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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 17 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated after 4Q23 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 35.72
Contributors with rating, # 15
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 87%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  13%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

Stated EPS (1), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average EPS, € 5.20 5.43 5.94
Growth y/y n.m. +4% +9%
Median EPS, € 5.17 5.34 5.89
Growth y/y n.m. +3% +10%
Max  5.61 6.01 6.75
Min 4.96 4.96 5.15

EPS(2), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average EPS, € 5.12 5.40 5.90
Growth y/y n.m. +5% +9%
Median EPS, € 5.16 5.34 5.89
Growth y/y n.m. +3% +10%
Max  5.40 5.84 6.50
Min 4.67 4.74 4.81

DPS(3), €

  2024E 2025E 2026E
Average DPS, € 2.13 2.38 2.82
Growth n.m. +11% +18%
Median DPS, € 2.13 2.35 2.81
Growth n.m. +10% +20%
Max  2.34 2.76 3.43
Min 1.80 1.80 2.24

(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

 

Consensus(4) 2024E   2025E   2026E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 23,011 23,001 22,557 22,518 22,702 22,691
Net interest 13,436 13,446 12,736 12,727 12,664 12,606
Net commissions 7,648 7,671 7,910 7,916 8,159 8,135
Trading income 1,511 1,545 1,483 1,543 1,460 1,461
Dividends 428 453 427 425 420 425
Balance -13 -22 1 12 -1 8
Operating costs -9,438 -9,436 -9,496 -9,517 -9,603 -9,619
Staff expenses -5,822 -5,802 -5,870 -5,850 -5,966 -5,915
Other administrative expenses -2,988 -3,070 -2,993 -3,052 -3,006 -3,106
Recovery of expenses 561 542 557 542 562 545
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,083 -1,090 -1,082 -1,100 -1,074 -1,108
Gross operating profit 13,574 13,564 13,061 13,012 13,099 13,068
Net write-downs on loans -938 -868 -1,165 -1,148 -1,291 -1,287
Net operating profit 12,636 12,664 11,896 11,765 11,809 11,760
Other charges & provisions -852 -869 -749 -723 -738 -710
 o/w Systemic Charges -701 -718 -574 -564 -558 -545
  o/w DGS -287 -283 -221 -250 -222 -250
  o/w Bank levies -203 -210 -165 -154 -163 -149
  o/w SRF -242 -248 -105 -126 -93 -108
Integration costs -121 -100 -80 -70 -77 -65
Net profit (loss) from investments -81 -26 -61 -16 -61 -11
Profit (loss) before tax 11,610 11,666 11,022 10,877 10,946 10,930
Income taxes -3,050 -3,135 -3,011 -2,984 -2,996 -3,007
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -27 -29 -28 -31 -26 -27
PPA -1 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -68 0 -1 0 -1 0
Stated Net profit 8,508 8,553 7,982 7,904 7,923 7,864
Net Profit (guidance definition) 8,376 8,449 7,932 7,904 7,870 7,864
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -273 -260 -283 -274 -293 -277
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -160 -172 -157 -160 -157 -159
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 7,996 8,031 7,556 7,399 7,478 7,459
             
RWA, EoP 286,488 287,098 300,119 298,722 305,240 305,899
CET1% 15.82% 15.95% 15.13% 15.20% 14.93% 14.98%

(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.

"Net profit after AT1/Cashes" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test and adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution, as well as RoTE and RoAC calculation.

 

Updated on 23 February 2024.