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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 18 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated after the 3Q23 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 33.08
Contributors with rating, # 16
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 100%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  0%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

Stated EPS (1), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 4.28 4.69 5.12
Growth y/y n.m. +10% +9%
Median EPS, € 4.25 4.73 5.06
Growth y/y n.m. +11% +7%
Max  4.64 5.25 5.87
Min 4.02 4.22 4.48

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(2), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 4.04 4.44 4.86
Growth y/y n.m. +10% +9%
Median EPS, € 4.00 4.51 4.83
Growth y/y n.m. +13% +7%
Max  4.42 5.01 5.60
Min 3.80 3.95 4.23

DPS(3), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average DPS, € 1.52 1.71 2.07
Growth n.m. +12% +21%
Median DPS, € 1.48 1.69 2.03
Growth n.m. +14% +20%
Max  1.72 1.88 3.05
Min 1.40 1.40 1.66

(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

Consensus(4) 2023E   2024E   2025E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 23,435 23,469 22,697 22,645 22,558 22,380
Net interest 13,842 13,855 13,283 13,234 12,928 12,732
Net commissions 7,458 7,440 7,619 7,605 7,848 7,778
Trading income 1,754 1,770 1,436 1,435 1,404 1,366
Dividends 437 443 402 413 408 416
Balance -56 -62 -42 -54 -31 -49
Operating costs -9,516 -9,513 -9,521 -9,518 -9,604 -9,606
Staff expenses -6,001 -5,843 -5,833 -5,832 -5,892 -5,911
Other administrative expenses -2,971 -3,043 -2,969 -3,036 -2,984 -3,057
Recovery of expenses 538 521 540 524 538 527
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,148 -1,150 -1,162 -1,157 -1,169 -1,170
Gross operating profit 13,919 13,948 13,176 13,097 12,954 12,778
Net write-downs on loans -923 -940 -1,302 -1,238 -1,419 -1,414
Net operating profit 12,997 12,956 11,874 11,923 11,535 11,563
Other charges & provisions -1,264 -1,260 -933 -910 -815 -829
 o/w Systemic Charges -986 -974 -701 -701 -598 -564
  o/w DGS -294 -292 -286 -292 -210 -204
  o/w Bank levies -216 -227 -215 -229 -161 -173
  o/w SRF -484 -465 -188 -161 -102 -106
Integration costs -893 -855 -187 -192 -91 -92
Net profit (loss) from investments -162 -137 -26 -6 -16 -6
Profit (loss) before tax 10,652 10,679 10,724 10,876 10,618 10,618
Income taxes -2,761 -2,792 -2,893 -2,861 -2,884 -2,818
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -26 -25 -26 -25 -27 -26
PPA -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 50 0 0 0 0 0
Stated Net profit 7,882 7,799 7,804 7,839 7,707 7,634
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -265 -266 -256 -254 -256 -254
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -133 -125 -143 -131 -143 -131
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 7,448 7,355 7,387 7,430 7,316 7,267
             
RWA, EoP 290,780 290,862 296,470 297,511 308,980 308,728
CET1% 16.55% 16.53% 16.59% 16.52% 16.03% 15.97%

(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.

"Net profit after AT1/Cashes" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test and adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution, as well as RoTE and RoAC calculation.

 

Updated on 10 November 2023.