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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 21 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated after the 1Q23 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 26.13
Contributors with rating, # 20
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 95%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  5%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

Stated EPS (1), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 3.59 3.81 4.21
Growth y/y n.m. +6% +10%
Median EPS, € 3.60 3.86 4.16
Growth y/y n.m. +7% +8%
Max  3.88 4.60 5.14
Min 3.14 3.10 3.46

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(2), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 3.36 3.54 3.92
Growth y/y n.m. +5% +11%
Median EPS, € 3.33 3.43 3.77
Growth y/y n.m. +3% +10%
Max  3.73 4.60 5.14
Min 2.88 2.83 3.17

DPS(3), €

  2023E 2024E 2025E
Average DPS, € 1.22 1.33 1.62
Growth n.m. +9% +22%
Median DPS, € 1.24 1.32 1.45
Growth n.m. +6% +10%
Max  1.36 1.62 2.47
Min 1.00 1.05 1.10

(1) Stated EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Stated Net Profit over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(3) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

Consensus(4) 2023E   2024E   2025E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 21,704 21,834 21,248 21,211 21,286 21,205
Net interest 12,649 12,708 12,191 12,051 12,086 11,857
Net commissions 7,375 7,411 7,474 7,509 7,616 7,671
Trading income 1,360 1,400 1,269 1,256 1,267 1,261
Dividends 332 332 330 324 332 326
Balance -12 0 -17 0 -15 0
Operating costs -9,594 -9,584 -9,758 -9,744 -9,904 -9,881
Staff expenses -5,907 -5,914 -5,993 -6,003 -6,085 -6,082
Other administrative expenses -2,982 -3,033 -3,037 -3,098 -3,085 -3,158
Recovery of expenses 483 512 482 512 489 520
Depreciation and amortisation  -1,165 -1,165 -1,187 -1,185 -1,200 -1,196
Gross operating profit 12,110 12,245 11,490 11,402 11,382 11,219
Net write-downs on loans -1,515 -1,566 -1,718 -1,678 -1,702 -1,643
Net operating profit 10,595 10,650 9,773 9,649 9,680 9,810
Other charges & provisions -1,211 -1,205 -919 -897 -849 -844
 o/w Systemic Charges -1,026 -1,026 -754 -748 -685 -645
  o/w DGS -304 -311 -318 -304 -263 -304
  o/w Bank levies -197 -217 -255 -183 -157 -148
  o/w SRF -448 -476 -196 -242 -165 -143
Integration costs -287 -311 -76 -29 -63 -22
Net profit (loss) from investments -65 -33 -32 0 -30 0
Profit (loss) before tax 9,041 9,067 8,745 8,559 8,735 8,778
Income taxes -2,405 -2,497 -2,348 -2,340 -2,366 -2,364
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -20 -18 -21 -20 -21 -20
PPA -1 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -5 0 -5 0 -5 0
Stated Net profit 6,608 6,558 6,361 6,244 6,328 6,284
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -297 -272 -294 -275 -297 -280
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -153 -137 -162 -140 -161 -138
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 6,153 6,092 5,853 5,812 5,857 5,873
RWA, EoP 301,714 299,750 306,341 305,568 317,681 317,961
CET1% 16.15% 16.33% 15.89% 16.03% 15.32% 15.60%

(4) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

"Stated net profit" means accounting net profit.

"Net profit" means Stated net profit adjusted for impacts from DTAs tax loss carry forward resulting from sustainability test.

"Net profit after AT1/Cashes" means Net profit as defined above adjusted for impacts from AT1 and Cashes coupons. The result is used for cash dividend accrual / total distribution, as well as RoTE and RoAC calculation.

 

Updated on 31 May 2023.