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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 22 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated ahead of 1Q22 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 14.60
Contributors with rating, # 20
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 70%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  30%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(1), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Average EPS, € 1.20 1.66 2.22 2.56
Growth n.m. +38%  +33%  +15%
Median EPS, € 1.25 1.75 2.29 2.68
Growth n.m. +39% +31% +17%
Max  2.23 2.25  2.96 3.01
Min -0.39 0.73 1.68 2.13

DPS(2), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Average DPS, € 0.46 0.67 0.88 1.16
Growth n.m. +46%  +30%  +32%
Median DPS, € 0.57 0.66 0.89 1.17
Growth n.m. +16% +34% +31%
Max  0.73 0.93 1.19 1.30
Min 0.00 0.47 0.65 1.00

(1) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Consolidated Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Consensus Full table

Consensus(3) 1Q22E   2022E   2023E   2024E   2025E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 4,421 4,440 17,431 17,485 17,715 17,771 18,131 18,155 15,158 18,153
Net interest 2,254 2,260 8,857 8,923 8,967 9,004 9,207 9,221 9,279 9,324
Net commissions 1,687 1,686 6,708 6,747 6,886 6,939 7,075 7,117 7,199 7,225
Trading income 382 387 1,460 1,447 1,459 1,465 1,459 1,460 1,449 1,445
Dividends 92 90 394 391 400 400 409 408 414 390
Balance 9 0 9 -9 13 -5 4 -6 25 0
Operating costs -2,414 -2,414 -9,707 -9,739 -9,605 -9,617 -9,484 -9,504 -9,526 -9,523
Staff expenses -1,477 -1,477 -5,949 -5,962 -5,875 -5,902 -5,787 -5,822 -5,765 -5,785
Other administrative expenses -766 -785 -3,063 -3,108 -3,022 -3,043 -2,970 -2,997 -3,005 -3,064
Recovery of expenses 117 130 505 535 513 540 515 539 439 540
Depreciation and amortisation  -283 -283 -1,154 -1,149 -1,173 -1,169 -1,189 -1,197 -1,194 -1,209
Gross operating profit 2,007 2,044 7,723 7,695 8,122 8,069 8,673 8,570 8,840 8,978
Net write-downs on loans -644 -700 -2,373 -2,287 -1,956 -1,831 -1,884 -1,833 -1,992 -1,910
Net operating profit 1,360 1,345 5,350 5,494 6,166 6,241 6,789 6,756 6,848 6,780
Other charges & provisions -688 -696 -1,218 -1,220 -1,192 -1,198 -949 -928 -938 -814
 o/w Systemic Charges -631 -630 -1,022 -1,031 -1,004 -1,022 -826 -800 -809 -800
  o/w DGS -75 -78 -333 -336 -329 -336 -333 -336 -318 -318
  o/w Bank levies -49 -43 -124 -124 -125 -125 -125 -125 -123 -123
  o/w SRF -500 -499 -561 -566 -543 -566 -308 -310 -272 -272
Integration costs -4 0 -23 -9 -17 0 -16 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) from investments -7 0 -137 0 -24 0 -15 0 -40 0
Profit (loss) before tax 663 640 3,982 4,251 4,938 5,006 5,813 5,815 5,870 5,784
Income taxes -170 -171 -1,028 -1,029 -1,241 -1,251 -1,474 -1,439 -1,365 -1,383
 o/w TLCF DTA write-up 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations 0 0 -466 0 -24 0 -24 0 0 0
Minorities -7 -7 -27 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -25 -28
PPA 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -171 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stated Net profit 413 455 2,599 2,803 3,648 3,715 4,288 4,346 4,478 4,526
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) 45 71 248 323 247 313 244 309 178 287
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) 7 7 84 82 93 102 97 106 34 94
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 392 445 2,396 2,847 3,442 3,410 4,070 3,975 4,315 4,301
RWA, EoP 328,695 328,963 324,223 323,032 324,786 322,659 326,825 323,445 337,339 329,153 
CET1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0% 13.9% 14.0% 14.0% 13.7% 13.8% 13.5% 13.8%

(3) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

Updated on 19 April 2022.