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Consensus

Sell-side analysts with active coverage of UniCredit at the research firms listed in the first page of the attachment were asked to submit their latest UniCredit estimates for this consensus collection. Research firms that have recently discontinued UniCredit coverage (some of which may have contributed to prior consensus collection) are not shown on this list. Sell-side analysts who maintain a detailed earnings forecast model are asked to participate in the consensus collection.

 

Please note that the table below and the downloadable document are a summary of publicly available opinions, estimates and forecasts made by analysts representing 24 brokers covering UniCredit. The document contains a summary of median and average consensus estimates for UniCredit, collected by UniCredit Investor Relations directly from sell-side analysts covering UniCredit.

The opinions, estimates and forecasts are theirs alone and do not represent the opinions, estimates or forecasts of UniCredit or its management, nor should they be considered as a recommendation to enter into any transaction involving UniCredit securities.

By including this information on its website, UniCredit does not endorse or concur with any of these opinions, estimates or forecasts and disclaims any liability for the completeness, timeliness, accuracy or selection of such information.

 

 

Consensus updated ahead of 4Q22/FY22 results.

 

 

Target price, rating, EPS, DPS

Target price & rating

   
Average target price, € 17.32
Contributors with rating, # 19
BUY (Overweight, Outperform, Add, Accumulate) 89%
HOLD (Neutral, Market Perform, Equalweight, In line)  11%
SELL (Reduce, Underperform, Underweight)  0%

EPS on net profit after AT1 and Cashes(1), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E
Average EPS, € 2.26 2.15 2.71
Growth y/y n.m.  -5% +26%
Median EPS, € 2.26 2.03 2.74
Growth y/y n.m.  -10% +35%
Max  2.68 2.59 3.28
Min 1.97 1.83 2.36

DPS(2), €

  2022E 2023E 2024E
Average DPS, € 0.82 0.79 1.00
Growth n.m.  -4% +27%
Median DPS, € 0.84 0.81 0.99
Growth n.m.  -3% +22%
Max  0.94 0.93 1.23
Min 0.58 0.62 0.80

(1) EPS is calculated by taking the estimates on Consolidated Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes over average outstanding ordinary shares submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

(2) DPS is calculated by taking the absolute cash dividends over EoP number of ordinary shares estimates submitted by the individual analysts that participate to the Consensus compiling process.

 

Group

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 4Q22E   2022E   2023E   2024E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 5,120 5,151 19,738 19,772 19,512 19,404 19,849 19,807
Net interest 3,114 3,170 10,376 10,439 10,956 10,987 11,151 11,040
Net commissions 1,608 1,615 6,830 6,838 6,787 6,774 6,917 6,932
Trading income 330 326 2,287 2,271 1,466 1,452 1,487 1,480
Dividends 80 84 328 328 337 329 338 339
Balance -11 -8 -83 -80 -33 -32 -43 -29
Operating costs -2,555 -2,546 -9,633 -9,622 -9,717 -9,737 -9,806 -9,836
Staff expenses -1,551 -1,551 -5,903 -5,903 -5,945 -5,938 -5,972 -5,961
Other administrative expenses -816 -833 -3,011 -3,087 -3,033 -3,107 -3,067 -3,107
Recovery of expenses 129 131 507 510 506 519 505 525
Depreciation and amortisation  -305 -299 -1,151 -1,145 -1,163 -1,151 -1,184 -1,160
Gross operating profit 2,565 2,599 10,105 10,158 9,795 9,629 10,043 10,034
Net write-downs on loans -869 -851 -2,222 -2,210 -2,532 -2,579 -2,257 -2,319
Net operating profit 1,696 1,726 7,883 7,898 7,263 7,018 7,786 7,722
Other charges & provisions -240 -245 -1,204 -1,200 -1,241 -1,254 -938 -925
 o/w Systemic Charges -76 -83 -1,119 -1,131 -1,117 -1,142 -924 -892
  o/w DGS -48 -41 -335 -328 -348 -328 -345 -328
  o/w Bank levies -10 -29 -164 -183 -156 -140 -151 -140
  o/w SRF -6 -2 -611 -608 -595 -620 -381 -332
Integration costs -10 -8 -52 -47 -27 -15 -22 -15
Net profit (loss) from investments 85 77 69 19 -22 0 -13 0
Profit (loss) before tax 1,531 1,570 6,702 6,741 5,976 5,699 6,815 6,846
Income taxes -428 -455 -1,620 -1,631 -1,568 -1,554 -1,789 -1,693
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations -1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities -16 -14 -29 -27 -29 -30 -33 -35
PPA 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other 18 0 19 0 -6 0 -7 0
Stated Net profit 1,102 1,164 5,070 5,132 4,376 4,159 4,990 4,981
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -113 -108 -309 -303 -323 -303 -333 -306
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -33 -30 -108 -113 -138 -121 -142 -125
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 911 958 4,580 4,610 3,939 3,717 4,526 4,538
RWA, EoP 322,908 323,062 322,630 322,814 326,395 326,500 330,252 329,801
CET1% 15.05% 15.15% 15.01% 14.89% 14.71% 14.78% 14.64% 14.56%

 

Group excluding Russia

Consensus full table 

Consensus(3) 4Q22E   2022E   2023E   2024E  
€m Average Median Average Median Average Median Average Median
Total revenues 4,903 4,938 18,713 18,656 19,039 19,048 19,406 19,367
Net interest 2,922 2,973 9,715 9,712 10,592 10,651 10,789 10,807
Net commissions 1,586 1,589 6,759 6,772 6,714 6,747 6,865 6,897
Trading income 322 336 1,932 1,916 1,411 1,403 1,425 1,450
Dividends 78 80 318 318 333 318 335 329
Balance -5 -7 -11 -3 -12 -3 -10 0
Operating costs -2,471 -2,466 -9,370 -9,350 -9,525 -9,505 -9,617 -9,610
Staff expenses -1,509 -1,512 -5,764 -5,767 -5,859 -5,867 -5,913 -5,908
Other administrative expenses -787 -795 -2,945 -2,991 -2,984 -3,031 -3,009 -3,043
Recovery of expenses 129 131 504 504 502 515 500 518
Depreciation and amortisation  -290 -285 -1,107 -1,100 -1,124 -1,114 -1,136 -1,125
Gross operating profit 2,432 2,458 9,344 9,312 9,514 9,562 9,789 9,752
Net write-downs on loans -755 -747 -1,215 -1,128 -2,260 -2,351 -2,118 -2,165
Net operating profit 1,677 1,735 8,128 8,212 7,254 7,202 7,671 7,582
Other charges & provisions -205 -203 -1,131 -1,117 -1,206 -1,207 -928 -927
 o/w Systemic Charges -69 -71 -1,091 -1,092 -1,087 -1,102 -883 -860
  o/w DGS -43 -37 -314 -310 -324 -311 -324 -311
  o/w Bank levies -10 -29 -167 -184 -163 -164 -153 -146
  o/w SRF -5 -2 -605 -602 -590 -610 -352 -320
Integration costs -12 -2 -37 -29 -21 0 -17 0
Net profit (loss) from investments 93 108 125 150 -5 0 -9 0
Profit (loss) before tax 1,553 1,614 7,079 7,167 6,022 5,842 6,717 6,607
Income taxes -405 -450 -1,756 -1,775 -1,625 -1,648 -1,808 -1,767
Net profit (loss) of discontinued operations -8 0 -13 1 4 0 10 0
Minorities -14 -10 -27 -25 -30 -33 -31 -37
PPA 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0
Goodwill impairment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -8 0 -8 0 -8 0 -8 0
Stated Net profit 1,129 1,143 5,286 5,314 4,379 4,253 4,892 4,931
AT1 Coupon (post tax basis) -91 -80 -292 -296 -296 -296 -302 -300
Cashes Coupon (post tax basis) -34 -30 -115 -117 -151 -125 -150 -125
Net Profit after AT1 and Cashes 1,010 1,011 4,874 4,894 4,025 3,913 4,556 4,542

(3) Please note that the number of contributors may vary line by line and by reference period. Hence some quarter-end figures may not match the year-end ones. NB: The consensus figures represent the line-by-line median of the estimates provided by the analysts, therefore are not additive.

 

Updated on 17 January 2023.