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2011: The Year of Coming of Age

2011: The Year of Coming of Age

UniCredit Economics & FI/FX research has just published its 2011 Outlook


2010 will most likely be remembered as the year of the reality check for the eurozone, the year that shattered some key, deeply held illusions that had taken root during the first decade of the single currency. Correspondingly, 2011 will have to be the year of coming of age, the year when eurozone members face up to some difficult and unpleasant trade-offs, and decide what they want the eurozone to be. The challenge will be to face and frame the trade-offs with honesty, resisting the temptation to hide behind new illusions. The debt crisis will help in this, because the costs of different lines of action or inaction are now clearly visible and quantifiable in monetary terms.

In the latest Euro Compass, the monthly and quarterly economics, fixed income and forex publication on the Eurozone, UniCredit Research analysts and strategists, under the coordination of Marco Valli (Chief Eurozone Economist), extended their forecast horizon to the entire 2011, providing an in-depth evaluation and growth outlook for Eurozone countries and the UK, also in the light of the recent tensions in the so-called "periphery countries" - Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain. The main conclusion drawn in the publication was that the current economic upswing is unlikely to be jeopardized by the debt crisis.


In the 2011 Outlook version of the monthly Italy Monitor, economists Chiara Corsa, Loredana Federico and Marco Valli, provided a detailed outlook for Italy for next year. According to them, 2011 will be another year of moderate growth, in which the labour market remains weak and inflation pressures under control. Household loans should continue to grow at a healthy pace as corporate lending slowly recovers. Despite the risks stemming from an escalation of the debt crisis, Italy's sovereign rating should not be in danger.

Euro Compass - 2011 Outlook - The year of coming age 1134kB
Italy Monitor - 2011 Outlook 264kB