In questa pagina è possibile scaricare alcune ricerche sull’attuale scenario di mercato prodotte dal team Economics & Fixed Income/FX di UniCredit Research.
Attenzione! Alcuni contenuti di questa pagina sono disponibili solo in lingua inglese. Euro Compass – mensile/trimestrale di ricerca Economics & Fixed Income/FX
Fornisce un'approfondita analisi dell'economia dell'area Euro e della policy della BCE, suggerendo strategie di reddito fisso e tassi di cambio.
2012 Outlook - Gradually moving towards a better place
■ GDP growth in the eurozone should ease from 1.6% in 2011 to 0.6% in 2012. However, we expect the economy to trough this winter, followed by gradually better growth over the course of the year as financial tensions start easing. ■ We forecast significant divergence in growth performance throughout the eurozone, as the periphery will be dragged by both fiscal consolidation and much tighter monetary conditions until the ECB regains control of monetary policy. ■ A more aggressive ECB, further measures on eurozone governance and signs of stabilization in the economy should help markets. We expect significant spread tightening, particularly at the short end. Meanwhile, we see further euro weakness ahead.
CEE Quarterly – trimestrale di ricerca Economics & Fixed Income/FX sui paesi dell'Europa centrale e orientale
Pubblicato su base trimestrale, fornisce una panoramica generale delle principali tendenze macroeconomiche dell'area, analisi dettagliate di 21 paesi emergenti dell'Est Europa e tabelle macroeconomiche previsive. Complementare al trimestrale, il semestrale CEE Economic Data 2008-2011 fornisce una rassegna dei principali indicatori strutturali e di ciclo per 18 paesi emergenti dell'Est Europa.
1Q 2012 - CEE Quarterly: Testing times
At least the start of 2012 will be a particularly testing period for the CEE region. The primary uncertainty at this stage stems from EMU via a number of channels (trade, risk appetite, bank funding). Though we have maintained our 2011 growth forecast, we have reduced our 2012 growth forecast by 0.9pp to 3.0. The larger economies, namely Turkey, Poland and Russia, will lead the pack, with Kazakhstan in first place. However Slovenia, Croatia and potentially also Hungary look set to slip back into recession. Many other countries (e.g. Czech, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia) will struggle to post real GDP gains in excess of 2%. Deleveraging by the banking sector within EMU risks weakening currencies and lowering GDP but some countries are more at risk than others. With growth slowing, fiscal policy in many countries on a consolidation path and the ECB easing rates, official policy rates will not increase much if at all in 2012. However the low level of rates means that there is also limited scope for cuts.
Please find attached an update of our macro views and forecasts for the 17 countries within CEE under our coverage.
Chief Economist's Corner
14 dicembre 2011 - Debate over role of ECB hits wrong note
The discussion of the European crisis and the appropriate policy responses have gone off track. We all agree that governments need to address the long-term issue of sustainability of the eurozone, and work is in progress to that effect. But what about the short-term crisis management?
(articolo pubblicato sul Financial Times del 14 dicembre 2011) ECB review
Approfondita analisi della politica monetaria della BCE.
8 dicembre 2011 - ECB: No sign of a more flexible stance on govie purchases- ECB review
Today, the ECB cut the refi rate by another 25bp to 1%, in line with our and market expectations. The deposit and the marginal lending rate were lowered by 25bp as well, respectively to 0.25% and 1.75%. The rate decision was by taken consensus, and Draghi stated that the disagreement was on the timing, not on the substance, implying that someone in the GC wanted to delay the cut. A 50bp move was not discussed. As expected, the central bank also took important steps on liquidity and collateral policy to alleviate funding problems and stress in the banking sector. However, the big news today is that Draghi’s stance on govie purchases disappointed those expecting some conditional opening to a more pragmatic approach. Draghi stated that a yield cap was not discussed, and also explicitly pointed out that his speech before the European Parliament was misunderstood when it comes to the possibility of expanding the SMP after governments move towards a fiscal compact. The overall tone of the press conference was dovish, and the new set of macroeconomic forecasts indicates a rising risk that the ECB will cut below 1% in the coming months.
In terms of unconventional policies, today the ECB announced the following:
■ Two LTROs carried out at full allotment with a 3Y-maturity and the option of early repayment after one year. ■ A relaxation of collateral rules, which consist in (i) reducing the rating threshold for certain ABS and (ii) allowing national central banks, as a temporary solution, to accept as collateral additional performing credit claims (i.e. bank loans) that satisfy specific eligibility criteria. Draghi stated that this measure will be particularly important for smaller banks; ■ A reduction of the reserve ratio from 2% to 1%, and the discontinuation of fine-tuning operations carried out on the last day of each maintenance period. For more details on non-standard measures, please take a look at the following link http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr111208_1.en.html
Today, we also had two important pieces of information. First of all, the ECB thinks that the IMF bilateral loan plan may not be compliant with the Treaty. Second, the ECB will prepare to intervene in government bond markets on behalf of the EFSF (and the purchased bonds will end up on the EFSF balance sheet).
Today the ECB also presented the new set of quarterly macroeconomic projections. The 2012 GDP forecast was lowered to 0.3% from 1.3% in September. The number for 2013, released today for the first time, is 1.3%, very close to what we consider the area’s growth potential. The ECB sees “substantial” downside risks to these projections. On the CPI front, the ECB raised the 2012 forecast to 2% from 1.7%, while the 2013 number – very important for monetary policy implications – is only 1.5%. Risks here are seen as broadly balanced. The 0.3pp upward revision to 2012 CPI in a context of materially slower growth may seem puzzling, but we have one reasonable explanation. In our view, for next year the ECB has pencilled in substantial upward price pressure due to indirect taxation, with a positive base effect in 2013. If this reading is correct, 1.5% CPI in 2013 probably provides a downwardly-biased estimate of where the ECB sees underlying price pressures in the medium term. Still, the new set of macroeconomic forecasts and the substantial downside risks to the growth outlook indicate that the ECB retains a clear easing bias entering 2012. Given the rather inflexible stance on govie purchases outlined today, the probability that they will need to cut below 1% in the coming months seems to be increasing – although we still think that rates have bottomed out.
For further info, please also read the attached "ECB: Focus on unconventional measures - ECB preview", dated 5 December 2011"
Italy - Economic Special
Dettagliata analisi dei principali trend macroeconomici , finanziari e di politica economica in Italia.
23 novembre 2011 - Italy at a crossroads
■ Things are moving fast in Italy! After the political shakeout that led to the formation of a technical government headed by Mario Monti, the country is at a crossroads. Faced with formidable external pressure to deliver, the new government is in the right position to gather bipartisan consensus and push ahead with the set of bold structural reforms that Italy urgently needs. For the time being, however, the markets remain unimpressed, and BTP-Bund spreads still hover around all-time highs. ■ Recent developments point to a significant deterioration in the growth outlook through 2013, something which has contributed to increasing investors’ worries that the Italian debt dynamics might eventually become unsustainable. Over the next few years, growth prospects will obviously be dampened by the impact of rising financing costs for the private sector, banks’ need to recapitalize, and the fiscal tightening already approved and in the pipeline. However, as we face these headwinds, GDP growth in the longer term should return to about 1%. Potential surprisalloalles need not be to the downside necessarily. ■ When considering flow variables, Italy’s fiscal performance compares favorably not only to the periphery, but also to some of the core eurozone countries. This can be explained by the combination of a cautious handling of public finances during the crisis, a sizeable fiscal effort between 2010 and summer 2011, but also a well-established improving fiscal trend, which had brought Italy towards a relatively sound deficit position ahead of the financial crisis in 2007. The political changeover, together with a close monitoring by international financial institutions, should substantially increase the chance that the commitment to fiscal austerity will remain in place in coming years. ■ Italian sovereign debt is sustainable even under very bearish assumptions for growth and interest rates. Indeed, the Italian debt/GDP trajectory does not differ materially from that of other major European countries and the US. However, in Italy this is predominantly achieved by tighter fiscal policies (combined with dismal growth), while most other countries, including the UK and the US, achieve broadly similar debt/GDP trajectories by estimating higher growth combined with much less ambitious fiscal policies. Italy needs to make a fundamental decision whether to stay on the low-growth path of previous years or whether to reform its economy to achieve higher growth rates - to the benefit of both its own population and investors in the real economy. Prime Minister Monti has committed to an ambitious reform agenda, and he enjoys very broad support in the population to pursue his strategy. The odds are that he'll succeed.
For further information, pls see the attached documents.
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